Micro-macro dilemmas in political science: personal pathways through complexity

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To grasp complexity, it is helpful to begin by understanding the concept of difficulty. Difficulty refers to hard decision problems, those with many variables that interact in a non-linear fashion. Difficult problems include curing cancer, designing an efficient combustion engine and creating the perfect hamburger. These problems exist independent of the actions of others. They are not strategic, but they are hard. Most scientific problems are difficult. Those that are not difficult, we have already solved.

Complexity is to game theory what difficulty is to decision theory. In a complex environment, agents take actions that influence the payoffs to other agents. The resulting behavioural dynamics cannot be fully understood by any one agent or set of agents. The agents may comprehend and exploit patterns along some dimension for periods of time, but others remain mysterious.

The constant discovery and exploitation of patterns yields new patterns. This elaborate interplay between the micro and the macro never ceases. This does not mean that no equilibria exist, but it does mean that equilibria have little informational value. The evolutionary environment in which we live will ultimately end in heat death for us all, although few use this to predict stock market prices - even in the long run. In sum, some systems settle into equilibria, others do not.

The former can be predicted using game theory. And, unfortunately, the latter cannot be predicted using either game theory or complexity theory. Because pattern awareness usually implies pattern exploitability. This means that complexity theory must have more modest aims than game theory.

Even though complexity theory cannot predict exact patterns, it can predict the sorts of patterns that might persist in negative as opposed to positive feedback systems. It can provide formal underpinnings for recurrent patterns. For example, how far is William McNeil's historically based "conservation of catastrophe" principle, which Jervis discusses, from Per Bak's Bak mathematical concept of "self-organised criticality? And, hopefully, complexity theory can teach us how to construct systems that will be less complex.

Or, if that is not possible, it might, at a minimum, allow us to steer the complexity into less problematic domains. In light of this discussion, the perspective presented by Jervis becomes clearer. He believes that some problems in international relations are complex, and that this is different from saying that all problems are complex. The easy parts can be solved through laws and norms: red means go and green means stop. He also thinks that strategic reasoning, if not formal game-theoretic models themselves, will go a long way in helping us to understand that complexity.

Perhaps the best way to gauge the strength of this argument is by a quick fly over, so here goes. The first substantive chapter of the book chapter two deals with what Jervis calls systems effects. This mantra of this chapter can be phrased in several ways: "the whole does not equal the sum of its parts", "results cannot be predicted from separate actions" or "interactions cannot be understood additively".

Jervis means that not only do the actions matter, but so do the connections and the environment.

In other words, the connections and the environment do not belong to the whole as commonly conceived in international relations. Whether that is true or not, I cannot say, but Jervis makes a compelling argument for using a wide angled lens in viewing social processes. For example, you might look at a partially obscured intersection and say: "That's a dangerous stretch of road. In some cases it will, in others, it will not. In the former U. Jervis makes two separate points here and both are good.

First, prediction macrobehavior from micro level incentives is a tricky business. This is a point made by Schelling in greater generality.

Brooke N. Shannon, Zachary A. McGee, and Bryan D. Jones

And second, even predicting individual behaviour from incentives is not easy. Consider the work of Karl Sims , formerly of Thinking Machines, who used a massive computer to evolve artificial species with the goal of propulsion in an environment simulating Newtonian physics. His measure of fitness was displacement in the centre of mass over a fixed period of time. One species that evolved was very tall and fell over, thus moving it's centre of mass a great distance. These examples show that predicting outcomes and crafting incentives can be a daunting task.

Political Science 30: Politics and Strategy, Lec 9, UCLA

You might pass a law requiring safer ladders, thus raising their price and encouraging the use of substitutes - say milk crates on top of chairs - and as a result, create a less safe world. But didn't most of us already know this? Even if we did, we benefit from a reminder.

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More importantly, this book was written for an international relations audience, and judging by the discussion in chapter three on systematic theories of international politics, I think that this book falls into the "much needed" category. After trudging through Jervis' overview of the bi-polar, multi-polar, first strike, second strike literature, I could only but wonder how any intelligent person would not pay attention to strategic interdependencies when studying international relations.

One struggles to imagine how amassing weapons, forging alliances and developing technologies would not induce strategic responses from others. Chapter four covers positive, negative, and circular feedbacks. As an example of a negative feedback, Jervis introduces the balance of power theory.

History tells us that no single state dominates, that there are few total wars, that losers are reintegrated into the international community and that small weak states survive.

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The infrequency of total war results from increasing opposition in alliance a negative feedback against an aspiring world dictator. Positive feedbacks include Schelling's famous racial tipping model Schelling , the aforementioned domino theory and races to the bottom within federal systems, such as when all states cut welfare benefits.

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Eulau, Heinz, (Person) - University Of Pikeville

See Banaszak, Lee Ann. Hersch, Charles. Hiskes, Richard P. Kneller, Jane, and Sidney Axinn, eds.

Micro-macro Dilemmas in Political Science Personal Pathways Through Complexity New edition

Nederman, Cary J. See Banaszak, Lee Ann, above. Pitkin, Hanna Fenichel. Dubois, Philip L. Lawmaking by Initiative: Issues, Options, and Comparisons. Espeland, Wendy Nelson. Fischer, Beth A. Gilligan, Michael J.